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09/11/2001 WE REMEMBER

"Fear is the foundation of most governments." - John Adams

"My family is more important than my party." - Zell Miller


My question isn't whether they'll ever become able to handle the wide variety of edge cases -- if a human can learn those, so can a sophisticated neural network. Eventually.

My question is, whenever this happens, will people actually willingly give up their freedoms to manually drive? In America specifically? (Sorry England, you guys seem to be okay with losing freedoms in the name of safety).

I think the gun thing is probably a better predictor of this than anything else. In 2017 we were having like one mass-shooting per month and absolutely no gun regulation measures were ever decided on. So unless the US becomes totalitarian (like actually totalitarian, not "I don't like the president") I don't think it'll ever happen.

Some things I think *will* happen:

  • New cars will all have automatic systems installed, the same way new cars today have computer components.

  • Many cities will make self-employed driving cars automatic and will have a large fleet of self-driving cars available that replace or augment public transportation

  • Major highways will have increasing numbers of self-driving lanes and decreasing numbers of manual driving lanes. These will be physically separated in some way, the way toll lanes are separate.

  • Many many truck-driving jobs will be replaced by self-driving cars and relatively quickly as well. For quite a long time human drivers will still be operators of self-driving cars the same way there are still factory operators today even when most of the work is done by robots.

    What do you think will happen?

  • #UK
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    There are 17 Replies

    What should happen and what actually happens are two completely different things. In America and other nations around the world, people still smoke cigarettes, even though they kill hundreds of thousands of people every year.

    Ideally self driving cars would be mandated by a specific deadline (2030) to limit the deaths caused by car accidents. But such a law would have to consider all the ways vehicles are used: package and mail delivery, taxi services, even hearsts and funerary services, not to mention trucks, vans, and various concrete and construction vehicles that need to be directed by drivers.

    So what will most likely actually happen is there will be no mandate: car companies will encourage the use of self-driving vehicles and insurance companies will offer lower rates to drivers of self-driving vehicles. The system will sort of, in a janky way, get to the point where most cars on the road are self-driving by 2030. But the stragglers will still remain for centuries, and the roads will continue to be unsafe because of them.

    Posted May 15th by mariomguy
    mariomguy

    Many many truck-driving jobs will be replaced by self-driving cars and relatively quickly as well. For quite a long time human drivers will still be operators of self-driving cars the same way there are still factory operators today even when most of the work is done by robots.

    What do you think will happen?

    This.

    However this is gonna hurt a lot of jobs. Truck driving is a profession where one can make 60-100k + a year with very limited training.

    My dad is a truck driver and fortunately for him he will be able to retire in a few years before he has to deal with any of this.

    Posted May 15th by S.O.H.
    S.O.H.
     

    "like actually totalitarian, not 'I don't like the president'"

    if you think that trump wouldn't looooove to be a totalitarian ruler, you're a dumbass - especially if you don't see the problem with that

    i'll respond to the actual thread soon

    Edited May 15th by poptart!
    poptart!
     

    what happens when an animal pops out and my self-driving car hits it and i have to go back and double tap it so it's not lying there suffering? i'm willing to bet the libertarian techbro douchebags behind this automation hell haven't considered that

    Posted May 15th by poptart!
    poptart!
     

    the libertarian techbro douchebags


    I mean it's definitely not just them that want more self-driving cars. I know you're probably talking about the people who are actually making it a reality, but just to be sure.

    Edited May 15th by KnokkelMillennium
    KnokkelMillennium

    My prediction: It will never happen, federally, in any United States that still looks like the United States as we know it. The mountain states literally cannot institute this; they don't have the infrastructure or cash, they're too spread out and the used car economy is strong enough that it would take decades to take hold. Midwest cities and especially the Southeast will resist it on principle and much of non SF and LA California will probably resist it, too (yes they're communists but car culture is in the blood). It might fly in the Pacific Northwest, New York, and northern urban areas, but (as mmguy suggests) the benefits are negligible without at least statewide adoption - you can't have increased speeds and full machine coordination if even a single manual driver is on the road, which are the main advantages.

    OTOH, this is almost certain to happen in the UK, some European countries, and Japan, which are small. It will surely be appealing to China, who definitely have the centralized authority to make it happen if they want, nightmarishly expensive as it would be. The EU might try to force it on member states and I'll wager we'll see at least one [foo]xit over it if they do.

    Though I don't expect manual-drive to be outright banned, Xhin's very likely prediction of the system itself being standard-issue is just as worrying. I for one am a bit nervous about the idea of law enforcement having access to a kill-switch (specifically, a pull-over-switch) in everyone's car, which is where this leads, essentially. Even if you don't feel like this administration in particular would abuse that power (you'd be wrong, but you're allowed to be), you can absolutely imagine one that would, and I wouldn't even trust my own mother with this.

    The other issue is, of course, who's actually considered to be at fault when the system fucks up. I have a feeling that city-dwellers who have never known the absolute *need* of a vehicle will be fine with this until someone they care about dies in an accident and it's attributed nebulously to software failure that Waymo-Yutani is mostly insulated against in court.

    Posted May 15th by Pink Peruvian Flying Bear
    Pink Peruvian Flying Bear

    SOH agrrees with this because this would reduce taxes for roads. I don’t want self driven cars mandatory I want the government to spend zillions of dollars on roads and FUCK THE ENVIRONMENTALISTS.we need better transportation here in California which means we need to BLAST through the mountains in our areas. Sorry Sierra Nevada mountain’s but roads are more important than scenery. Brocken jr thinks that environmental areas should not be touched he thinks they’re sacred and are God’s land.

    I would blast right through Yosemite SOH as a means to extend interstate 70 to California. It needs to rimyo Fresno and then San Jose as a means of a southern bypass of interstate 80 which runs directly from San Francisco to Sacramento to Reno to Salt Lake City to Cheyenne and all the way to New York City. Interstate 70 starts in dc and runs all the way to Utah where it terminates in the middle of nowhere along interstate 15 so it can help people go southwest directly to Vegas and so cal.

    Posted May 15th by Weid man
    Weid man
     

    S.O.h. agrees with this


    insert you dense m.f. meme here


    I don't agree with it. A lot of jobs will be affected by this. And unless we are gonna go down the road of increasing the amount of safety nets we have or handing out universal basic income its gonna cost a lot more harm then good.

    Ill also add that human skill trumps computer A.I. my dad's a truck driver and hes been able to pull off some crazy maneuvers that I dobt think computer a.I. would ever be able to do.

    Posted May 15th by S.o.h.
    S.o.h.
     

    Fucj the environmentalist


    again insert you dense m.f. meme here.



    Posted May 15th by S.o.h
    S.o.h
     

    Californua’s mountains are super ugly compared to the Appalachians. It’s not super important to protect california’s mountains environment we should just drive straight through them and tell the emvironmentalisrs to fuck off

    Posted May 16th by Weid mountain
    Weid mountain
     

    No.

    Posted May 16th by S.o.h.
    S.o.h.
     

    No.

    Agreed. Not because I love the mountains or "god's land" (lmao) but it would be an absolutely long project to destroy, recycle, smooth over, and pave a new path to save some time for people. I'd be for the hyperloop instead.

    Also it just sounds like weid likes to make environmentalists mad.

    Posted May 16th by Fox Forever
    Fox Forever

    I agree with everything you said on top of my environmental concerns.

    Posted May 16th by S.o h
    S.o h
     

    I'm ju st hopig they ebcome a thing o n the market I'll definatley by one.

    Posted May 16th by tnu
    tnu

    The hyper loop on your case fox is the 91 freeway. I am trying to get the state to waste zillions of dollars ob two new key routes which will be a bypass of the routes in your area which are so clogged. Extend interstate 40 from Barstow to Bakersfield to Santa Maria so that ir’ll Be a northern bypass route of the general Los Angeles area. Then construct a new freeway running east to west cutting through the tango Santa Margarita mountains from the 15/215 merge to the 5/73 merge hoping that it passes the 241 toll road which hopefully gets extended to San onofrw so that route can also be an eastern bypass of the 5 throughout Orange County, and the new east west freeway from Temecula/Murrieta all the way to mission veijo (all three cities with over 100,000 each) would be a SOUTHERN BYPASS of the congestion probes 91 freeway through the Santa ana canyon.

    Posted May 16th by Weid man
    Weid man
     

    I'm ju st hopig they ebcome a thing o n the market I'll definatley by one.

    It will be wonderful for sleeping!

    on top of my environmental concerns

    I would have concerns but I'm grossly ignorant when it comes to a lot of environmental problems.

    I am trying to get the state to waste zillions of dollars ob two new key routes which will be a bypass of the routes in your area which are so clogged

    So is it important or not? Idk why you'd use the term "waste".

    Posted May 16th by Fox Forever
    Fox Forever

    I mean SPEND. My plan would get a freeway that connects SOUTHERN ORANGE AND RIVERSIDE.COUNTIES together so that there will be a southern bypass of the 91 which connects the major four counties together right from the corners of them (Los Angeles, riverside, Orange, and San Bernardino counties). BUT NOW Ir has to accommodate people coming from northern San doego county because there’s no east-west freeway from the corners of northbound San Diego county, Orange County, and riverside county. My idea would be a 30 mile mountain pass east-west really running from the 5 in San Juan Capistrano directly east to the 14 in Temecula/Murrieta. Interstate 40 as mentioned would be the first freeway to connect the central coast and the central valleys together which it would connect directly to the largest city in Santa Barbara county, 30 minutes north of the Santa Barbara area and its populated cities and would be the northern bypass of the greater Los Angeles region which would connect the central coast to the San Joaquin valley fonthw Mojave Desert and points north and east of there once it reaches the interstate 15/40 junction in the city of Barstow.

    Posted May 16th by Weid man
    Weid man
     
    Reply to: Will self-driving cars ever become mandatory?

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