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09/11/2001 WE REMEMBER
War and reelection
Posted: Posted January 8th by Nique204
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It's starting to look like war with Iran wont be avoidable with tonight's events.
Thing I've been realizing is that, this has a lot of Mike Pompeo written on it, as Trump cant possibly think a war nobody wants sits well in an election year.

What are your thoughts on war and his reelection?

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I would be for war if we were going after Saudi Arabia. You know the ones who provided the funding, training and ideology for the 9/11 attacks. But war with Iran? What the fuck.

Posted January 8th by S.O.H.
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S.O.H.
 

Ya know, we in America are a pretty nostalgic people. Ya got things like Stranger Things, this new Star Wars trilogy, all the reboots and sequels coming out from '80s properties, never-ending wars in the Middle East... We're pretty nostalgic! Anyway, I for one was just starting to miss being constantly called anti-American for opposing the Iraq War, so it'll be nice to relive my high school days!

It's a war he's been trying to provoke since the beginning. His administration isn't even trying to be coherent with its messaging on why the airstrike needed to happen. They've also straight up lied (like, openly lied, not "we'll find out years later that they definitely lied - we know they're actively lying *now*). And they're also being totally dismissive of the escalation. (I'm trying to imagine the fury that would emerge if a Democrat said something about Iranians killing US soldiers as "some noise" and simply saying, "what'll happen will happen." Things that Trump and Pompeo have literally said! Out loud! To the American people!

Then you see reports coming that show they informed almost no one that the airstrikes were evening happening. So not only did they not really spend much time considering retaliation; they didn't even warn proper commanders and troops in the region to be ready because an airstrike was about to happen! Even if you were someone who has been hankering for war with Iran for decades; does anyone *really* trust *this* administration to run it in any sort of vaguely well fashion?

But, it does seem like a pretty clear wag the dog scenario. It distracts from the impeachment coverage. And picking a war with Iran pretty much insures he gets his base riled up. Few Republicans will break from the President if he decides to send troops in. Americans are pretty warhawk-y in general, so I'm sure he'll get support from some conservative Democrats, too. Not that I expect Trump to follow the law and abide by the Constitution. And if he can then use something else to try and make the argument that people who don't like *him* therefore don't like *America* (something he's done since the getgo, and a pretty go-to tactic for Republicans going back to the Bush years).

I don't think it works the way he thinks it will, of course. When we're here in the States constantly debating health care and education and climate change - things that many Americans desperately need, want, or are directly impacted by - Trump is going to balloon the budget to pay for a war, and that's going to get him votes? We already know his base will turn up. But his base is also a minority. He starts another war, it's really going to backfire politically. In years past, it might have been sound strategy. Or if he were an even vaguely competent human person or political figure, it might. That's not what he is though, and given that a growing number of voters have never experienced a day of their lives when America hasn't been at war (insert 1984 reference here), the fatigue is definitely there. Plus, while we're still constantly having to explain how we're going to pay for health care (easily one of the single most important issues to voters across the spectrum), it's gonna be tough to justify cutting their access to health care and enacting policies that make it harder and more expensive, to spend a whooooole lot of money on yet another war with no discernible end game in view.

(How are we gonna pay for it, conveniently, is seldom asked when it comes to our wars. And, I suppose, we once again see what exactly Republicans mean when they talk about "fiscal responsibility" and claim to care about the deficit or national debt. Maybe finish one war before you go out of your way to pick another.)

I actually suspect Bernie will pick up support here, though. He's been a little slow to respond, but no one has a better anti-war platform than Sanders. It's definitely a good way for him to create distance from Warren (who is also anti-war here, but still gives some of the usual pro-war talking points in her responses).

Edited January 8th by Jet Presto
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not perticularly fond of the idea but one war or another seemed inevitable no matter who won the last election.

Posted January 8th by tnu
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tnu

This is literally what bill clinton did when he was about to be impeached:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Infinite_Reach
History repeats itself.

Idk if war with iran is inevitable -- neither the US nor Iran wants that war. There will probably just be some retaliatory strikes here and there. Some sabotage. And some kind of ceasefire at the end of it. Who knows though, the general was pretty popular in iran and they're trying to martyr him.

Posted January 8th by Xhin
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Xhin
Full speed ahead


And picking a war with Iran pretty much insures he gets his base riled up.


His base is pretty anti-war though -- neocons are the warhawks, not alt-right.

that's going to get him votes? We already know his base will turn up. But his base is also a minority. He starts another war, it's really going to backfire politically.


Trump doing shitty things doesn't mean people are suddenly going to turn out en masse to vote democrat. There have to actually be, you know, good candidates. As good as bernie is, a lot of people aren't going to be able to stomach someone that far left.

Posted January 8th by Xhin
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Xhin
Full speed ahead

Judging by the strikes last night, Iran is perhaps looking to save face, whilst providing an avenue for diplomatic climb-down (deliberately targetting bases already at high-alert, at the symbolic time of 1.30am etc.). Any more than that would guarantee ever more escalating US retaliation.

Iran knows what it's good at. It knows what the US is good at. Iran will attempt to avoid frontal confrontation at all costs. The IRGC didn't spend 20 years fostering links with scores of Shia militias after the Iraq War off the back of shock and awe tactics. Iran will try to move this back to the territory it is most comfortable with; proxy wars with fragmented opposition in its client states, backed by Russia and Alawite Syria.

Equally, this assumes Trump isn't his usual irritable man-child self - one without any real knowledge of world affairs, let the region or Iran itself. It assumes he won't disregard this overture, and retaliate in the same way as he did in assassinating Suleimani by drone.

Posted January 8th by Arch
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Arch
 

Trump administration was merely the final domino that escalated us to this point, but the US has wanted at Iran (and planned for a war) ever since Iran nationalized its oil and took it out of the hands of greedy foreign plunderers. This has nothing to do with “national security” (hate that phrase) or being defensive or “liberating” the Iranian people. It’s all about resources and geopolitical power.

What a potential waste of lives and money. But somehow we can’t take care of our sick and fund higher education. The fuck kind of priorities do we have in this country?

Also have a sneaking suspicion this is only the beginning of Iran’s retaliation to the assassination of Soleimani.

Edited January 8th by pacman
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The Americans will have nothing but dust and blood. -Iran

Posted January 8th by S.O.H...
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Looks like we're just putting sanctions on Iran and iran is backing down, as predicted. There's still the question of what exactly happened with that plane, but I don't think we're going to war.

Edited January 9th by Xhin
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Xhin
Full speed ahead

We essentially declared war when we killed their top general. It just won’t likely be a conventional war because Iran knows it would lose in a direct confrontation. I don’t think this is the end of it though. It’s been going on since the 1980s, but this is the worst it’s been since the hostage crisis.

Another possibility I could see is Trump essentially redoing the Obama Iran deal under a different name (like he did with TPP).

Posted January 9th by pacman
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