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09/11/2001 WE REMEMBER
Sanders is now the favorite to win all primaries according to fivethirtyeight
Posted: Posted February 6th
Edited February 6th by Grey Echelon
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1225457968457682945 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
May not be all that accurate in the end but this is still a big deal.

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I think it might be safe to say Bernie is the frontrunner at this point.

Posted February 6th by pacman
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pacman
 

I'm gonna laugh when the DNC goes all Anakin Skywalker and fucks him over again in favor of Pete.

Posted February 6th by S.o.h.
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S.o.h.
 

Sounds more tragic than laughable. What a bullshit oligarchy if that manages to happen again despite all of this momentum.

Posted February 6th by Grey Echelon
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The election season hasn't even really begun yet. Iirc Ron Paul was the frontrunner leading up to the actual primary season, and Bernie is basically the Democrat version of him.

I'm impressed buttigieg has as much support as he does, but not really surprised -- he definitely stood out during that first debate way back when.

The actual primary season tends to be a game-changer though -- that's when the money and tactics start flowing.

Posted February 6th by Xhin
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Xhin
 

I'm impressed buttigieg has as much support as he does, but not really surprised -- he definitely stood out during that first debate way back when.

Might want to look into the caucus thread. Even aside from the one county I saw even more examples of the IDP's official election results not lining up with with what the counties themselves released and of course it worked in the favor of Buttigieg.

Posted February 6th by Grey Echelon
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Wouldn't be the worst outcome.

Posted February 6th by 9x19
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9x19
 

Wouldn't be the worst outcome.

It's the best realistically possible one imo. There are better fully third parties no doubt but they have no chance.

Posted February 6th by Grey Echelon
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@Xhin

Part of it is that Buttigieg put all his eggs in one basket so to speak as he dumped a ton of ads, staff and campaign resources into Iowa. Not all that surprising he did well. Not sure if the boost can carry him to the nomination though. Especially with Bernie surging in NH and Super Tuesday states.

Posted February 6th by pacman
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pacman
 

Easily the most annoying part of the Iowa shit show is that we aren't going to see major candidates drop out. (Amy Klobuchar almost certainly would have had to drop out if she didn't do as well as she did in the caucus. And there's still all the >1% candidates still running somehow for some reason like Deval Patrick, Michael Bennett, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard.)

But yeah. I mean, Bernie had been polling in second place since before he even announced his candidacy. I see the thinking of the Buttigieg camp, that if they can supplant Biden as the centrist Democrat, he'll win over some of Biden's supporters. Only, voters don't often make a lot of sense and polls indicate that most Biden supporters would go for Warren or Sanders himself before Buttigieg. It's not going to be a gambit that pays off.

Definitely safe to say Sanders is the frontrunner. Still very early, Sanders is probably the only candidate right now that we can definitely expect to make it to the end of the primary season. The other of the "Big Five" probably could, with Klobuchar maybe the exception, but could just as easily see a big drop off by or just after Super Tuesday.

Iirc Ron Paul was the frontrunner leading up to the actual primary season, and Bernie is basically the Democrat version of him.


I mean, kinda but also not really. There's also the fact that Sanders has been an established figure for years at this point. He got a little over 43% of the vote in 2016. By comparison, Paul in 2012 garnered just a smidge over 10%. Point here being that Sanders is not really as "fringe" in the Democratic party as Paul was in the Republican party in 2012. There appears to be a noticeably larger, broader base for Sanders now and in 2016 than there ever was for Paul in '12. Really the only comparable elements about them is that they weren't the "establishment" and performed better in caucuses than in popular voting. (Though I suspect even that will look very different this year.)

Posted February 6th by Jet Presto
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I don’t trust any predictions until the results of the primaries have covered half or more of the delegates.

Before then for all I can tell people are just guessing. If they think they’re expert enough that their guesses are any good, then as far as I know they may just be fooling themselves, Dunning-Krueger style. OTOH the ones who say “I have no idea” probably include 75% or more of the real experts. Of course if you’re a commentator no-one wants to pay to put you on the air to say “I don’t have a fuckin’ clue”.

Even after Super Tuesday or whenever it is that most pledged delegates have been pledged, there’s still some guesswork involved unless the majority of them are pledged for the front-runner; and even if they are, there’s a mathematical possibility, but maybe not a statistical likelihood, that they’ll be surprised!

I saw my first campaign button today attached to the purse of the woman ahead of me at the grocery-store checkout register. It said “Warren”.

I think I should volunteer to be a poll-worker in our August primary or our November general or both.

But I usually don’t predict results of elections except in my own precinct.


Posted February 6th by eldin raigmore
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