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09/11/2001 WE REMEMBER
Iran launches mussels at US AIR base in Iraq
Posted: Posted January 9th by Your Local News.
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All is well though. No causilities, no damage. Although it did hit some sand, I feel sorry for the sand.

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Posted January 9th by Xhin
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Xhin
Full speed ahead

They missed on purpose. They're in a catch 22 situation right now: Go to war with the US and risk complete annihilation, or do nothing and look weak in the eyes of an increasingly revolutionary population.

Iran state media claimed that they killed US soldiers and used old photos of explosions and body bags as evidence. They are just trying to manufacture the impression that they will retaliate in order to save face at home while avoiding war.



Posted January 9th by Dr. Doom
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Iran doesn't want a war and neither do we. So yeah iran will give us some "slaps on the wrist", and trump will impose sanctions, and that'll be the end of that.

Posted January 9th by Xhin
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Xhin
Full speed ahead

Let's be a little real here: it's Iraq that's gonna get the worst of it. It wasn't a US base; it was an Iraqi base that hosted Americans. And the airstrike that sparked all this wasn't in Iran; it was in Iraq.

But we should also be totally prepared for harsher retaliation, especially as the White House has an increasingly incoherent strategy to the situation (of their own making to begin with).

It also feels a little surreal to have to suss out what information might be accurate. Iran state media isn't exactly something one can trust. Then again, neither is anything that comes out of this White House. And it's not exactly like the folks at Fox News have never done things like used old footage out of context to falsify a story to drum up support for war either, which matters given that Fox News is the official White House channel at this point. And it's not exactly like the Pentagon ever has incentive to be honest about the situation either. It's not like they've been the most truthful over the past twenty years.

It's wild to be in a position to straight up not trust either governments' reports on the situation. But I think it's fair to say that American soldiers, as well as Iraqi civilians, will be at extra risk now. (I mean, let's be real: the Iraqis continue to get the short end of the stick.) What makes everyone so sure that the sanctions won't cause further disruption and also elevate tensions? What is even the point of the sanctions? What's the end goal there? What are we hoping to accomplish with them? Does anyone know? Does anyone think Trump knows?

Posted January 9th by Jet Presto
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Then again, neither is anything that comes out of this White House


Oh come on now, that's true for *every* white house. Need to know basis and all that.

From what we *are* told, I heard there was some kind of letter on the Iranian general's person. Does anyone know more about that? That sounds like there's some kind of deeper conspiracy happening.

What makes everyone so sure that the sanctions won't cause further disruption and also elevate tensions?


They might elevate tensions, but neither side wants a war and that's ultimately going to be the deciding factor here.

What is even the point of the sanctions? What's the end goal there? What are we hoping to accomplish with them?


The same as the point of Iran's "slap on the wrist" -- saving face.

Posted January 9th by Xhin
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Xhin
Full speed ahead

That’s pretty sad that have to launch missles at sand to appease their people.

Posted January 9th by Brandy
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What is even the point of the sanctions? What's the end goal there?

Basically what I mentioned in the other thread.

Economic pressure to either

A) get Iran to comply with US/Israel/Saudi interests, or

B) foster desperation and revolutionary sentiment necessary for regime change

Or else it’s just a political stunt so that Trump can essentially redo the Iran deal and take the credit himself.

Posted January 9th by pacman
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Reports are coming out that Iran shot down a Ukranian passenger plane after their attack after allegedly mistaking it for an incoming missile.

Posted January 9th by Dr. Doom
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As I said yesterday and as Doom says above, it was a face-saving exercise, and it looks to have worked (at least for now). Let's see what the aviation investigation into this Boeing crash brings to light.

Doubtless the regime will attempt to probe the limits of US reluctance to commit more resources to the region in due course. Most likely via Hezbollah or the Houthis in an attack on Israel or opposition Arab Gulf states respectively. That, or against US-backed militias in Syria/Iraq. The destruction of ISIS and US's long-term strategic ambiguity in the region leaves a big vacuum to fill.

[Economic sanctions to either] get Iran to comply with US/Israel/Saudi interests

Considering how this approach of "maximum pressure" has failed so far, it's difficult to see how assassinating a perceived national hero gets them to comply with even worse conditions.

foster desperation and revolutionary sentiment necessary for regime change

They were of course witnessing civil unrest - before Suleimani was killed.

This also assumes Russia and China will maintain the formality of sanctions - the latter still imports Iranian oil, albeit in smaller volumes now. Trump's trade stance towards the WTO and Beijing, developments this year, is important in this regard.

Edited January 9th by Arch
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Arch
 

I agree with sanctions being a failure and the assassination of Soleimani being an outright blunder, but those are the main strategic reasons for sanctions. “Maximum pressure” and ideally regime change. It has nothing to do with Iran being a legit threat as the US media tells the people here (and most Americans believe it). In reality it’s cynical geopolitical posturing and nothing more.

Posted January 9th by pacman
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