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"Impeachment will assure Trump's reelection"
Posted: Posted December 19th, 2019 by Nique204
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First I'll start by saying that I think the media has painted this nonsensical narrative that Trump is somehow unbeatable (or that only one Candidate could beat him), because if you look at the margin he won swing states by in '16, and a majority of the elections that have happened since then, there's nothing that suggests he's this almighty lock for 2020.
But as far as impeachment, why is anybody saying that's just handing him a win in 2020? Do people seriously think that anyone who wasn't voting trump up until now, is all of a sudden a lock to vote for him due to this? Anybody who loved trump by this point was voting for him regardless of impeachment.

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I am prepared for 2020 to go either way. Trump is a very "beatable" candidate whereas the democrats are a very beatable party right now.

As far as impeachment goes, polling seems to indicate that over the course of the impeachment hearings, support for impeachment and removal has gradually shifted from the Democrats' favor and to Trump's favor.

Also, gaguing Trump's re-electability by his approval numbers is difficult, since they aren't objectively mind blowing, but compared to what they looked like the last time he won, it does seem to suggest that he has a much clearer path to victory than in 2016.

Posted December 19th, 2019 by Dr. Doom
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This is the thing I'm having a really hard time with in the Democratic primary. I definitely understand that folks are spooked. This has been an unmitigated disaster of a presidency thus far, and a lot of people have had their lives ruined from it. And I get that Democrats always tend to take the wrong message away from things. Given the electoral college system and how partisan things are these days, literally any candidate of either major party will have a chance. We aren't likely going to see any *real* landslide victories. I also get that the Republican party has basically turned into a cult for Trump. The one Republican who seemed to have some philosophical principle, Justin Amash, basically had to leave the party because of it. (I fundamentally disagree with Amash on practically every single issue, but I can respect someone who has principle and tries to be consistent about it.)

The stakes are certainly high, and it's scary and intense and I get that. Truly, I do. The Trump administrations war on truth and an accountable government is really frightening, and does not bode well.

But Trump has never actually been a popular person outside his cult. The Republicans today held a moment of silence for the 63 million voters who cast their ballots for Trump today, but I kinda hope someone reminds them that 66 million voters cast their votes for Hillary Clinton. Factoring in additional third party candidates, you have nearly 8 million MORE Americans who voted AGAINST Trump than for him. His margins in key swing states was incredibly thin. The guy has also had a historically low approval rating from the very getgo. Polls indicate over half of Americans support impeaching him. And even the majority of Republican voters agree that he should allow witnesses to testify in the Senate trial (something he and his party have obstructed since the process began). So even with Russian interference, Facebook's shitty policies, opposition being another unpopular candidate, and voter suppression in key swing stages, Trump didn't even get the most votes of any candidate.

He's not invincible. He's not inevitable. You're not going to convert Trump supporters. You're not even going to convert Republicans. You're barely going to make a dent in white folks (the *ONLY* demographic Trump did better than Clinton with, for the record: across all lines, including class and educational lines, Trump only did better among white voters). I definitely understand (and support) Democrats putting forth a more genuinely exciting candidate. I know that will vary among primary voters, but the idea of a genuinely exciting candidate increases the likelihood of voter turnout.

But I also feel a bit like many Democratic voters are maybe losing site of just how awful Trump has been for many marginalized Americans. The idea that just nominating another boring centrist (which they've mostly only done in modern times - Gore, Kerry, and Clinton, with only Obama being arguably less centrist in his first campaign posing as more of a progressive) is terrifying because, as noticeable, Gore and Kerry and Clinton didn't exactly end well for the party (though worth noting that both Gore and Clinton, moderate Democrats, were more popular than Bush and Trump - I'm sure the House Republicans will hold a moment of silence for all those American voters who had their votes overturned by the electoral college...) But there's almost an extra level of desperation. You don't need a super exciting candidate to beat Trump in a re-election.

The thing that's ultimately scary is: given Trump's overt corruption both domestically and, evidently, overseas, who knows who else he's asked to dig up dirt on his competition? Does anyone really believe he *wouldn't* have accepted foreign aid in an election campaign? He has obvious conflicts of interests with his businesses overseas and has, in two elections now, publicly encouraged foreign interference. The only thing about this Ukraine situation is that he got caught. We really think he wouldn't accept or even knowingly allow Russian interference, or Chinese interference, or Saudi interference? Does anyone really trust that Trump is keeping his oath of office? Would it surprise anyone to find out that he maybe even sought it?

But yeah, I agree: I think it's good for Democrats to really think about how they go about this election, but I really don't see it as productive or helpful to act like Trump is unbeatable. It's just maybe worth remembering that he is sort of like Reagan on steroids in terms of his command of the Republican party, but he couldn't even muster up the most votes, never mind 50% of the votes. This guy is absolutely beatable. I don't find it productive or helpful to act like it's only doom and gloom.

(Which is not to say we should take him lightly, or that he can't win, or that I'll be surprised if he wins. But let's have a little perspective on it.)

Edited December 19th, 2019 by Jet Presto
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Idk about 100 percent ensuring his reelection (especially depending on the nominee, which will matter A LOT), but I do think there are many ways in which failure to remove from office would help Trump.

Also Trump isn’t unbeatable. DNC just refuses to drop its corporate backing and instead appeal to their base and Americans at large. The corrupt, centrist “old guard” is stubborn to the point where I think progressives might need a new party or political tactic. Also voter disenfranchisement is a thing (what just happened in Georgia and Wisconsin was upsetting).

Edited December 19th, 2019 by pacman
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How do you figure the impeachment will help Trump?

Posted December 19th, 2019 by Jet Presto
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Predicting election outcomes is like alcoholism. It's always with regret that I swear off ever doing it again, but then I go back on my word at the nearest available opportunity.

Trump could certainly lose, but it seems like the off chance. I remain convinced that the Republicans will pay dearly for what they've done eventually, and in 2016 I was saying that it would be in 2020. Now I'm saying 2022 or 2024. Who knows, because I certainly don't.

Posted December 19th, 2019 by Famov
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How do you figure the impeachment will help Trump?

Only if the Senate impeachment fails obviously. Just historically that’s the effect of a failed impeachment (see Clinton’s rise in approval after LewinskyGate). And if it does go to the Senate it will force Sanders and Warren off the campaign trail to attend hearings. I just think people like Nancy Pelosi should have thought through what the logical conclusion of this would be. I’m for impeachment on principle, but honestly I think it’s just eatablishment Dems’ way of resisting without resisting. As I alluded to in the other thread, they continue to enable his shitty policies that affect the American people directly, and literally not one regular American cares much about the Ukraine. Which is another dumb move by Pelosi and co. - they are only focusing on this and not financial crimes and other, more damning cases against Trump.

Posted December 20th, 2019 by pacman
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Pelosi obviously did not want to go forward with the impeachment. The moderate democrats in swing districts are already feeling the heat turn up on them.

The democratic party has been pushed out of the Overton window by terrorist sympathizing radicals. The old guard is losing its grip on their party, this was a capitulation to the psychopaths on the far left on Pelosi's part.

Posted December 20th, 2019 by Dr. Doom
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Lol talk about an uninformed, sensationalized shit take on what’s happening in the Democratic party.

Posted December 20th, 2019 by pacman
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The old guard is losing its grip on their party, this was a capitulation to the psychopaths on the far left on Pelosi's part.

Hmm yes. The old "everyone I dislike and who seems contemptible is a psychopath" and "everything is actually the work of extremists I don't like somehow pulling all of the strings even though it makes absolutely no sense and they ultimately have no real power". Very original, very enlightened.

The democrat part is dominated by centrists and the center-right and if you're being generous the center-left but nowhere in all of the party are there "far-left psychopaths". Even if you look at it generously, the left barely even exists in the party much less the far-left.

Lol talk about an uninformed, sensationalized shit take on what’s happening in the Democratic party.

Sadly doesn't seem to be too uncommon of a take either. They're swallowing the bullshit propaganda whole.

Edited December 20th, 2019 by Grey Echelon
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